Below, an updated slide for Nintendo

http://www.slideshare.net/jamesckyeh/nintendo-investment-thesis-before-the-launch-of-switch

The sharing/portable aspect of NX will be a critical diffusion factor when building up installed base. If there are enough games focusing on sharing and fully utilization of NX functionalities, network effect will drive the demand. Initial software lineup weak? hmmm probably true for some serious gamers but should be fine for early adopters (maybe fan boys). NX should have sufficient games to choose from for general consumers before/during its first holiday season.

DS cannibalization is not unlikely. But shareholder should think it differently, particularly from a decision-making point of view. The company knows what it's doing. Whether they have a strategy to differentiate devices on the "portable side" and whether it works out or not, willing to innovate/commercialize a product which might take some share from another product line shows the company has courage to try new ideas.

Gaming on smart-device looks promising after the release of FEH. While the result cannot be compared with that of Mario/Pokemon, downloads/revenue of FEH look decent. Should expect the company learns something from these ventures and releases titles that have outstanding ip/ux/monetization combination.

Believe NX will be a big hit and we should take advantage to build up position before the consensus gravitating to bullish about NX. From the share price movement perspective, the first year of building up installed base is very lucrative with limited risk as you don't have to worry about the slow down of hardware growth, churn of installed base, the software pipeline and other metrics on software business.

I don't have a target price nor an estimated value for this stock. The 30K is just a minimum price level if everything goes well. If everything goes well, what I can expect is that we will see the first boom bust cycle on stock price in next 1-1.5 year.