Down Fridays
What an ugly day. Today marked the 142nd time since 1900 that the Dow went down at least 2% on a Friday (when the following Monday was not a holiday). On the following Monday, the Dow has averaged a decline of 0.31%, with positive returns 49% of the time. Since the bear market that started in October 2007, this has happened 6 other times (see table at right). On the following Monday, the Dow has gone down 4 out of 6 times for an average decline of 0.73%. The last two times we've had a >2% decline on Friday, the following Monday has lost 2.42% and 2.63%. Let's hope Monday's trade is a little better than that!
・11月初日の過去50年間の実績。ここ4年間は下落が続いてる、、、って話
It's The First Of The Month
Over at Bespoke Premium, we just put out a report on November seasonality and the typical returns for the Dow in the last two months of the year. Next Monday marks the first trading day of November. Below we highlight the Dow's performance on the first trading day of November over the last 50 years. As shown, the average change on these days has been 0.27%, with gains 56% of the time since 1959. The last four starts to November, however, have been negative.
